Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Austria	18:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:00	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	14:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	19:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Czech Republic	18:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
France	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	18:00	DFB Play, RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 2, Sky Sport 6, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Hong Kong	01:00	M Plus Live
Israel	19:00	Sport 3
Macao	01:00	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	01:00	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
Mexico	11:00	Disney+
North Macedonia	18:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	18:00	VG+
Portugal	17:00	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Serbia	18:00	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	18:00	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Switzerland	18:00	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	19:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Arab Emirates	21:00	Abu Dhabi Sports 1
International	17:00	OneFootball TV


	Freiburg		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.70	4.20	4.33
	1.65	4.3	4.4
	1.68	4.59	4.61
	1.65	4.35	4.59	Watch
	1.61	4.5	4.5
	1.62	4.25	4.6	Watch
	1.62	4.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.45)	4.32 ↓ (4.73)	4.5 ↓ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
57.3%

Draw
21.8%

Wolfsburg
20.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.4%

19.7%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

18.6%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Freiburg's form might have worsened.

Wolfsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Wolfsburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wolfsburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Freiburg - Wolfsburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Wolfsburg (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Muller F. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 37. Rosenfelder M. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 16. Engelhardt Y. 22. Irie C. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.	1. Wellenreuther T. (G) 26. Kumbedi S. 6. Wahl H. 33. Cleiton 21. Maehle J. 37. Rexhbecaj E. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 20. Damar M. 17. Bernhardsson A. 7. Shiogai K.
Substitutes
1. Backhaus M. (G) 19. Beste J. 42. Goto K. 9. Holer L. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 6. Osterhage P. 20. Yamamoto R.	18. Adjetey J. 22. Angely M. 23. Besio A. 8. Dardai B. 2. Fischer K. 31. Gerhardt Y. 19. Glatzel R. 11. Reese F. 30. Zielinski J. (G)
Coaches
Schuster J.	Strobl T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Matanovic I. ⚽, Gunter C. (A),
8', 1 - 1, Shiogai K. ⚽, Wellenreuther T. (A),
36', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
39', Treu P. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
43', 1 - 2, Shiogai K. ⚽, Damar M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Kumbedi S. 🟨,
57', Bernhardsson A. 🟨,
60', Eggestein M. 🟨,
63', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Reese F. ↑,
67', Shiogai K. 🟨,
68', Rosenfelder M. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
68', Suzuki Y. ↓, Goto K. ↑,
68', Shiogai K. ↓, Besio A. ↑,
75', 2 - 2, Goto K. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
80', Arnold M. ↓, Gerhardt Y. ↑,
80', Rexhbecaj E. ↓, Dardai B. ↑,
85', Irie C. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 2, Goto K. ⚽, Lienhart P. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3.

Freiburg has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Wolfsburg is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Wolfsburg could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Freiburg is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Freiburg has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:34 (averaging 1.6:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Freiburg against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 17:16 goals (averaging 1.7:1.6 per game).

Outrights of German DFB Pokal for now

Freiburg: 3.42%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
25.10.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.10.26	Monaco - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Freiburg - Jablonec	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
11.10.26	Freiburg - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWW
- VfL Wolfsburg
German 2 Bundesliga
23.10.26	Bochum - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
17.10.26	Wolfsburg - Heidenheim	3:1 ✺
10.10.26	Nürnberg - Wolfsburg	4:4 ✺
Club Friendly
01.10.26	Wolfsburg - TSV Havelse	4:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
18.09.26	Wolfsburg - Darmstadt	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4
26.04.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	0:1
13.12.24	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	3:2
27.04.24	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:2
09.12.23	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	0:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	2:3

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