Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 12

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Worcester City		Stourbridge

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.10	2.25
	2.55	3.20	2.43
	2.93	3.36	2.21
	2.93	3.43	2.29	Watch
	2.90	3.30	2.18
	2.83	3.22	2.25
	2.80	3.25	2.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.35)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	2.27 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worcester City
32.2%

Draw
27.8%

Stourbridge
40%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.1%

27.9%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.5%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worcester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Worcester City's form might have worsened.

Stourbridge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stourbridge's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worcester City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Worcester City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stourbridge than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stourbridge, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Worcester City - Stourbridge Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Willis Z. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Jarvis D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, Hayward N. ⚽,
67', 1 - 3, Jarvis D. ⚽,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 19th in the Relegation and 12th).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Worcester has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:7 (averaging 2:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Worcester against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 2:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15:16	-1	19
19	Worcester	12	2	4	6	11:16	-5	10

Last Results with these Odds

Stourbridge - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34%, but this team recently wins 7% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worcester City
English Southern League Central Division
10.10.26	Rushall Olympic - Worcester City	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Kettering Town - Worcester City	1:3 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
29.09.26	Racing Club Warwick - Worcester City	2:2 ✺
22.09.26	Worcester City - Banbury United	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
18.09.26	Worcester City - Stratford Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTTW
- Stourbridge FC
English Southern League Central Division
10.10.26	Stourbridge - Leighton Town	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Stourbridge - Racing Club Warwick	0:1 ✺
29.09.26	Alvechurch - Stourbridge	0:0 ✺
22.09.26	Stourbridge - Real Bedford	1:4 ✺
12.09.26	Hitchin Town - Stourbridge	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
18.11.25	Worcester City - Stourbridge	3:2
10.09.25	Stourbridge - Worcester City	2:2
Club Friendly
31.07.18	Worcester City - Stourbridge	1:3

Worcester City - Stourbridge