Match Info

National League North - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Sandy Lane Stadium (Worksop)


	Worksop Town		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.3
	1.98	3.55	3.25
	1.97	3.83	3.33	Watch
	2	3.3	3.3
	1.98	3.36	3.37
	1.96	3.5	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.07)	3.49 ↑ (3.41)	3.33 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worksop Town
46.3%

Draw
26.2%

Alfreton Town
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

23.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worksop Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Worksop Town than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Worksop Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Worksop Town - Alfreton Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Worksop (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Worksop (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Martin A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 and 23 in the zone Relegation).

Worksop has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alfreton has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Alfreton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Alfreton has had a series of away games.

Worksop might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worksop Town
English National League North
20.12.25	Southport - Worksop Town	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Worksop Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 penalties ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Worksop Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Leamington - Worksop Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Worksop Town - South Shields	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTWL
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
16.12.25	Alfreton Town - Southport	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Alvechurch - Alfreton Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Curzon Ashton - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Scarborough Athletic - Alfreton Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLTL

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