Match Info

National League North - Round 20

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday


	Alfreton Town		Southport

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.88	2.63
	2.52	3.2	2.62
	2.54	3.32	2.71
	2.53	3.32	2.68	Watch
	2.5	3	2.63
	2.47	3.08	2.63
	2.5	3.2	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.72)	3.14 ↑ (3.11)	2.65 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
36.4%

Draw
29.1%

Southport
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

29.9%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

30.4%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southport than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Alfreton Town - Southport Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alfreton will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Southport will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alfreton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Alfreton (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Alfreton (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', 0 - 1, Hilton S. ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, Hunt M. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 2.

Alfreton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Southport is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alfreton won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 2.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.14%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Southport - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Alvechurch - Alfreton Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Curzon Ashton - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Scarborough Athletic - Alfreton Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
18.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Alfreton Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTLW
- Southport
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Southport - Leek Town	3:1 ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	AFC Telford United - Southport	2:2 ✺
25.11.25	Southport - Radcliffe	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Southport - Kidderminster Harriers	2:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Buxton - Southport	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
04.02.25	Alfreton Town - Southport	0:2
10.08.24	Southport - Alfreton Town	3:1
27.01.24	Southport - Alfreton Town	2:3
12.08.23	Alfreton Town - Southport	3:1
21.03.23	Southport - Alfreton Town	0:0
20.08.22	Alfreton Town - Southport	4:0
26.03.22	Alfreton Town - Southport	2:2

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