Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/32-finals

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Alvechurch		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.6	2.42
	2.6	3.65	2.45
	2.56	3.65	2.47
	2.5	3.3	2.4
	2.49	3.38	2.42
	2.54	3.33	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.8)	3.49 ↓ (3.9)	2.43 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvechurch
36.1%

Draw
26.2%

Alfreton Town
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

23.2%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

23.3%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvechurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alfreton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alfreton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alvechurch - Alfreton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Beck M. ⚽,
12', 0 - 2, McCann B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', 1 - 2, Ngandu J. ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, Ilesanmi E. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 1)
1, Ilesanmi E. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Beck M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Willis J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ligendza S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Sephton E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Perritt H. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Clifford L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Alvechurch may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Alfreton has had a series of away games.

Alfreton might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 44.47%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alvechurch FC
English Southern League Central Division
29.11.25	Needham Market - Alvechurch	1:0 ✺
25.11.25	Alvechurch - Worcester City	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Alvechurch - Banbury United	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Halesowen Town - Alvechurch	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Alvechurch - Real Bedford	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
06.12.25	Curzon Ashton - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Scarborough Athletic - Alfreton Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
18.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Alfreton Town	1:2 ✺
English National League North
11.11.25	Alfreton Town - Spennymoor Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTLWW

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