Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 21

Date: 14 December 2024, Saturday


	Worthing		St Albans City

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.7	3.9
	1.72	4	4
	1.73	3.85	4.26
	1.75	3.86	4.29
	1.73	3.8	4
	1.72	3.9	4.11
	1.72	4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.57)	3.87 ↓ (4.14)	4.08 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worthing
53.6%

Draw
23.8%

St Albans City
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22.3%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

21.3%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worthing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Worthing's form might have worsened.

St Albans City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worthing than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Worthing, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Albans City than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Worthing - St Albans City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Wheeler N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+6', 1 - 1, Jeffers S. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Worthing won 2.

Recent matches Worthing is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

St Albans has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Worthing could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Worthing is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Worthing won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18:24 (average 2.3:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Worthing won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:12 (average 3:4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worthing FC
English FA Trophy
07.12.24	Worthing - Gosport Borough	1:2 penalties ✺
English National League South
03.12.24	Salisbury - Worthing	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Worthing - Weston-super-Mare	3:0 ✺
26.11.24	Farnborough - Worthing	1:0 ✺
23.11.24	Worthing - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWLT
- St Albans City
English National League South
10.12.24	Boreham Wood - St Albans City	3:0 ✺
30.11.24	Maidstone United - St Albans City	1:1 ✺
25.11.24	Aveley - St Albans City	6:3 ✺
23.11.24	St Albans City - Chippenham Town	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
16.11.24	St Albans City - Basford United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
17.08.24	St Albans City - Worthing	2:2
13.04.24	St Albans City - Worthing	2:4
09.12.23	Worthing - St Albans City	4:4
11.02.23	Worthing - St Albans City	4:5
03.09.22	St Albans City - Worthing	0:1
English FA Cup
24.09.19	Worthing - St Albans City	1:3
21.09.19	St Albans City - Worthing	2:2

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