Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Mario Camposeco (Quetzaltenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX Sports


	Xelajú		Malacateco

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.33	7.00
	1.47	3.80	5.60
	1.40	4.50	8.48
	1.45	4.22	7	Watch
	1.34	4.45	8.35
	1.42	4.48	7.10	Watch
	1.38	4.30	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.54)	4.3 ↑ (3.6)	7.22 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xelajú
65.8%

Draw
21.5%

Malacateco
12.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.7%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

22.8%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xelajú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Xelajú's performance.

Malacateco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xelajú than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malacateco than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Xelajú - Malacateco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva D. (G) 23. Calderon R. 16. Cardona J. 26. Cardoza E. 30. de Leon O. 7. Diaz Y. 10. Lopez A. 5. Monreal E. 20. Quezada Gamez H. E. 25. Ruiz K. 13. Tebalan W.	. Guzman A. (G) . Chun M. . de Leon I. . Esqueda Romero J. A. . Guzman Miron D. J. . Meneses R. . Morales A. . Ochoa J. . Quinones E. . Soto A. . Vasquez G.
Substitutes
18. Castaneda J. 6. de Leon M. 12. Gonzalez E. 4. Hernandez M. 19. Joj J. 24. Marquez R. . Racancoj J. 98. Sican E. (G) 8. Ubico J.	. Andrade N. . Correa J. . Cummings H. . Garcia R. . Laparra J. . Longo J. . Morales F. . Rendon C. (G) . Trigueno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Quinones E. ⚽,
32', de Leon O. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Cardona J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vasquez G. ↓, Longo J. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Quezada Gamez H. E. ⚽,
58', Soto A. ↓, Morales F. ↑,
58', Guzman Miron D. J. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
72', Morales A. ↓, Trigueno J. ↑,
75', de Leon O. ↓, Marquez R. ↑,
76', Quinones E. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
82', Chun M. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', Quezada Gamez H. E. ↓, Castaneda J. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 7th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Xelajú won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this matchup, Xelajú is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Xelajú has recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:20 (averaging 0.9:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Xelajú against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 13:5 goals (averaging 1.4:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Xelaju	14	6	3	5	27:17	10	21
9	Malacateco	14	4	3	7	15:21	-6	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Xelajú
Guatemala Liga Nacional
10.10.26	Aurora - Xelajú	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Xelajú - Deportivo San Pedro	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Xelajú - Comunicaciones	2:3 ✺
23.09.26	Xelajú - Antigua GFC	4:0 ✺
20.09.26	Suchitepéquez - Xelajú	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLWT
- Deportivo Malacateco
Guatemala Liga Nacional
10.10.26	Malacateco - Deportivo Guastatoya	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Cobán Imperial - Malacateco	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Marquense - Malacateco	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Malacateco - Deportivo Mixco	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Municipal - Malacateco	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
07.08.26	Malacateco - Xelajú	2:2
05.04.26	Xelajú - Malacateco	1:0
18.02.26	Malacateco - Xelajú	1:0
28.09.25	Xelajú - Malacateco	3:0
19.07.25	Malacateco - Xelajú	0:1
15.03.25	Xelajú - Malacateco	2:1
29.01.25	Malacateco - Xelajú	2:1

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