Match Info

Kazakhstan Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Tevyashov D. (Kaz)


	Astana		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	3.15	2.45	Watch
	2.86	3.2	2.38
	2.29	3.25	2.86	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.3
	2.62	3.35	2.5
	1.36	3.8	6.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (1.83)	3.33 ↓ (3.36)	3.12 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
40.3%

Draw
28.9%

Tobol Kostanay
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

26.3%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Astana's form might have worsened.

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tobol Kostanay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Astana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Astana - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tobol will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Tobol (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
74. Seysen M. (G) 52. Tokenov T. 91. Token A. 77. Shomko D. 70. Nurmukhambet N. 79. Serikov N. 4. Anuarov S. 7. Karaman D. 19. Zhaksylyk N. 20. Ahanonu N. 22. Abdurasulov A.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 26. Glushchenkov K. 22. Marochkin A. 88. Kalmyrza M. 38. Bakitzhanov A. 6. Myakish M. 29. Usenov D. 17. Zuev A. 14. Talal A. 11. Marat D. 99. Hebaj R.
Substitutes
47. Abrayev M. 2. Bartolec K. 8. Basic I. 15. Beysebekov A. 93. Condric J. (G) 9. Islamkhan B. 3. Kalaica B. 81. Karimov R. 6. Kasym A. 10. Tomasov M. 11. Vorogovskiy Y.	3. Asrankulov R. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 4. Cavnic N. 13. Cisse A. 30. Guerra L. 18. Milovanovic U. 5. Ndiaye P. 33. Pivovarov I. 8. Tagybergen A. 21. Zhagorov N. 7. Zhumashev Z. 19. Zhumat D.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Bakitzhanov A. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Talal A. ⚽, Marat D. (A),
36', Abdurasulov A. 🟨,
40', Ustimenko D. ↓, Busurmanov S. ↑,
42', Usenov D. 🟨,
45+2', Usenov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bakitzhanov A. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
46', Abdurasulov A. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
53', Karaman D. 🟨,
57', Kalmyrza M. ↓, Asrankulov R. ↑,
57', Talal A. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
67', Serikov N. ↓, Islamkhan B. ↑,
68', Tokenov T. ↓, Bartolec K. ↑,
72', Zuev A. ↓, Zhagorov N. ↑,
73', Token A. ↓, Kalaica B. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Anuarov S. ⚽, Bartolec K. (A),
81', Nurmukhambet N. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Zhumashev Z. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 2.

Astana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tobol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Astana is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Astana won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Astana - Atyrau	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Astana - Ordabasy	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Kairat - Astana	4:0 ✺
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTLW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0
19.09.25	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	2:3
10.05.25	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:3
03.11.24	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	1:0
Kazakh Cup
08.05.24	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	1:0
Kazakh Premier League
21.04.24	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:2
16.09.23	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:1

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