Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Ynyshir Albions		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	4.25	4.35	1.55
	4.4	4.52	1.56
	19.39	15.88	1.04	Watch
	4.79	4.4	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.21 ↑ (4.31)	7.29 ↑ (4.39)	1.42 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ynyshir Albions
12.6%

Draw
14.2%

Trefelin
73.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

20.7%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

19.9%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ynyshir Albions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ynyshir Albions's form might have worsened.

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trefelin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ynyshir Albions than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ynyshir Albions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trefelin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ynyshir Albions - Trefelin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Ware L. ⚽,
7', 0 - 2, Brock T. ⚽,
13', 0 - 3, Bowen L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
76', 0 - 4, Bowen L. ⚽,
89', 0 - 5, Bowen L. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 4).

Ynyshir Albions has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Trefelin is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ynyshir Albions may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Trefelin is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ynyshir Albions won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ynyshir Albions won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ynyshir Albions
Welsh Cymru South
13.09.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Ynyshir Albions	4:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ynyshir Albions - Afan Lido	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Cambrian United - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ynyshir Albions - Ammanford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLTT
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Trefelin - Ammanford	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3 ✺
22.08.25	Trefelin - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Treowen Stars - Trefelin	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
26.11.22	Ynyshir Albions - Trefelin	2:3
29.08.22	Trefelin - Ynyshir Albions	0:3

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