Match Info

Cymru South - Round 6

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday


	Baglan Dragons		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.6	2.02
	3.03	3.74	2.04
	1.68	3.75	4.67	Watch
	2.97	3.6	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.53)	3.67 ↑ (3.57)	2.7 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
36.9%

Draw
26.7%

Trefelin
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.2%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.7%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (+2%)

Baglan Dragons - Trefelin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Williams O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', Davies J. 🟥,
73', 1 - 1, Bowen L. (Pen),
84', Jones M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 5).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Trefelin has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Baglan Dragons - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 35.56%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Baglan Dragons - Pontypridd United	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
20.07.25	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TTLWL
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3 ✺
22.08.25	Trefelin - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Treowen Stars - Trefelin	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Trefelin - Newport City	0:2 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
26.12.24	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:2
26.08.24	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	2:0
24.02.24	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	1:1
25.11.23	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	4:1

Upcoming Matches