Match Info

Cymru South - Round 5

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday


	Trefelin		Llantwit Major

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.05	4.45
	1.59	4.24	4.51
	1.58	4.27	4.78	Watch
	1.55	4.2	4.65
	1.72	3.8	3.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.72)	4.11 ↑ (3.8)	4.45 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
57.2%

Draw
22.2%

Llantwit Major
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

23.9%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

23.1%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Trefelin - Llantwit Major Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Rowe K. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Stokes T. M. ⚽,
28', 1 - 2, Ware L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', 2 - 2, Bowen L. ⚽,
85', 3 - 2, Davies J. ⚽,
88', 3 - 3, Bevan L. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 1.

Recent performances by Trefelin have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Llantwit Major is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Trefelin is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 2:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Trefelin - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Treowen Stars - Trefelin	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Trefelin - Newport City	0:2 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	1:6 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
25.07.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Trefelin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLLW
- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Cambrian United - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Ammanford - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Llantwit Major - Aberystwyth Town	1:2 ✺
Welsh League Cup
19.07.25	Llantwit Major - Afan Lido	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
25.01.25	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	0:0
16.08.24	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:1
02.03.24	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	3:1
09.09.23	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3
04.03.23	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	0:1
30.07.22	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	1:2
26.02.22	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	2:1

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