Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 12

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Ząbkovia Ząbki		Jagiellonia II Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.80	2.80
	1.90	3.80	3.00
	1.98	3.79	2.91
	2.02	3.86	2.95	Watch
	1.96	3.75	2.85
	2.06	3.85	2.98	Watch
	2.28	3.38	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.28)	3.75 ↑ (3.38)	2.86 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ząbkovia Ząbki
44.5%

Draw
24%

Jagiellonia II Białystok
31.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.9%

26.2%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

26.1%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ząbkovia Ząbki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ząbkovia Ząbki's performance.

Jagiellonia II Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ząbkovia Ząbki than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ząbkovia Ząbki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Ząbkovia Ząbki - Jagiellonia II Białystok Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, ⚽,
45+4', 1 - 1, Swiatek J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
69', 2 - 1, Jankowski M. ⚽,
86', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th and 8th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ząbkovia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ząbkovia has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:2 (averaging 2.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ząbkovia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Zabki	14	6	4	4	27:23	4	22
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	25:26	-1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia II Białystok - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 34.9%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ząbkovia Ząbki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
25.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Mławianka Mława	3:4 ✺
18.09.26	ŁKS Łomża - Ząbkovia Ząbki	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Weszło - Ząbkovia Ząbki	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Pelikan Łowicz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLW
- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
25.09.26	Wisła Płock II - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - ŁKS Łódź II	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Mławianka Mława	7:4 ✺
05.09.26	ŁKS Łomża - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
14.03.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:1
27.08.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Ząbkovia Ząbki	1:5

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