Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 18

Date: 8 December 2023, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport Extra


	Zagłębie Sosnowiec		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.9
	2.4	3.1	2.75
	2.5	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.56	3.15	3.01
	2.56	3.13	3.01
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.44	3.15	2.84
	2.4	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.91)	3.14 ↑ (3.08)	2.89 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
38%

Draw
29.7%

Motor Lublin
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

30.2%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

30.3%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Sosnowiec's performance.

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Motor Lublin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Sosnowiec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Motor Lublin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Motor Lublin Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Motor: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kos M. (C) 96. Calinski P. 2. Bykov O. 13. Dalic V. 20. Klups T. 55. Karwot M. 18. Guezen D. 19. Ziemann M. 17. Valencia J. 95. Zielonka N. 11. Fabry M.	1. Rosa K. (G) 73. Lis J. 21. Rudol S. 18. Najemski A. 47. Palacz K. 68. Wolski B. 37. Scalet M. 77. Ceglarz P. (C) 26. Krol M. 99. Spiewak K. 7. Rybicki M.
Substitutes
28. Bebenek K. 9. Bilinski K. 14. Bonecki S. 10. Camara J. 4. Machala M. 29. Rozwandowicz M. 16. Ryndak D. 87. Siuta K. (G) 88. Troc A.	55. Gasior M. 45. Jez O. (G) 27. Kasprzyk D. 24. Luberecki F. 5. Magnuszewski K. 20. Sedzikowski D. 15. Staszak J. 19. Welniak K. 9. Zebrakowski M.
Coaches
Derbin A.	Feio G.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 7).

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Motor is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Polish Division 1
26.11.23	Miedź Legnica - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:0 ✺
12.11.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Arka Gdynia	1:3 ✺
03.11.23	Wisła Kraków - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
31.10.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Division 1
28.10.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Tychy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLTLL
- Motor Lublin
Polish Division 1
25.11.23	Motor Lublin - Resovia Rzeszów	3:2 ✺
10.11.23	Znicz Pruszków - Motor Lublin	1:0 ✺
05.11.23	Motor Lublin - Wisła Płock	2:2 ✺
29.10.23	Motor Lublin - Odra Opole	2:0 ✺
20.10.23	Chrobry Głogów - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
21.07.23	Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	3:2

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