Match Info

Division 1 - Round 14

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion MZOS Znicz (Pruszków)

Referee: Idzik P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Znicz Pruszków		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.58	3.3	2.58	Watch
	2.67	3.35	2.69
	2.39	3.27	2.77	Watch
	2.52	3.34	2.56
	2.1	3.35	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.11)	3.3 ↓ (3.35)	2.71 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Znicz Pruszków
37.6%

Draw
28.1%

Puszcza Niepołomice
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

27.4%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Znicz Pruszków has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Znicz Pruszków's form might have worsened.

Puszcza Niepołomice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Puszcza Niepołomice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Znicz Pruszków than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Znicz Pruszków, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Puszcza Niepołomice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	66.7%	8.3%

Znicz Pruszków - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Znicz will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Puszcza will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Misztal P. (C) 14. Okhronchuk V. 5. Jach J. 99. Koprowski O. 7. Sokol D. 80. Plewka P. 25. Konieczny D. 8. Proczek T. 20. Borecki M. 9. Majewski R. 29. Bak D.	31. Perchel M. (G) 67. Barczak N. 2. Kasolik K. 5. Stepien K. 23. Przybylko K. 13. Kanach R. 19. Stec J. 17. Iwao K. 88. Nascimento F. (C) 10. Cholewiak M. 22. Simon C.
Substitutes
19. Karol M. 21. Mak M. 53. Nadolski A. 1. Napieraj K. (G) 90. Nowakowski J. 6. Pawlik M. 77. Skladowski F. 22. Tabara K. 33. Valencia J.	21. Basse A. 18. Francois E. 11. Korczakowski O. 97. Kowal W. (G) 8. Mrozinski P. 34. Piekarski A. 27. Solowiej L. 7. Stepien M. 16. Walski M.
Coaches
Struhar P.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Przybylko K. ⚽, Barczak N. (A),
36', Kanach R. 🟨,
45+1', Okhronchuk V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kanach R. ↓, Walski M. ↑,
67', Proczek T. ↓, Karol M. ↑,
67', Majewski R. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Kasolik K. ⚽, Cholewiak M. (A),
72', Borecki M. 🟨,
76', Bak D. ↓, Nadolski A. ↑,
76', Borecki M. ↓, Mak M. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Barczak N. ⚽,
87', Nascimento F. ↓, Mrozinski P. ↑,
87', Okhronchuk V. ↓, Pawlik M. ↑,
87', Simon C. ↓, Basse A. ↑,
90', Iwao K. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
90', Cholewiak M. ↓, Francois E. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 15).

Znicz is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Puszcza's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Znicz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Znicz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Znicz Pruszków
Polish Division 1
19.10.25	Górnik Łęczna - Znicz Pruszków	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Znicz Pruszków - Śląsk Wrocław	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Miedź Legnica - Znicz Pruszków	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Małapanew Ozimek - Znicz Pruszków	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Division 1
21.09.25	Znicz Pruszków - GKS Tychy	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TWLWW
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Division 1
20.10.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Wisła Kraków	0:3 ✺
04.10.25	Polonia Bytom - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Odra Opole	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
23.09.25	Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
20.09.25	Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
08.04.16	Znicz Pruszków - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1
12.09.15	Puszcza Niepołomice - Znicz Pruszków	0:1
30.11.14	Puszcza Niepołomice - Znicz Pruszków	0:0

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