Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom (Mostar)

Referee: Aptsiauri A. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Germany	Laola1
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland 2
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Zrinjski Mostar		Valur

	1	X	2
	1.17	6.25	12.00	Watch
	1.22	6.25	9.75
	1.20	6.25	12.50	Watch
	1.25	5.90	13.88
	1.2	6.45	13.4	Watch
	1.21	5.15	13.00
	1.18	7.32	14.00	Watch
	1.20	6.20	12.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.6)	6.22 ↑ (4.1)	12.57 ↑ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zrinjski Mostar
77.6%

Draw
15%

Valur
7.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

22.9%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

22%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zrinjski Mostar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zrinjski Mostar's performance.

Valur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valur might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (-16.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zrinjski Mostar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Zrinjski Mostar - Valur Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zrinjski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Zrinjski Mostar will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Subaric Z. (G) 21. Grbic V. 27. Jakovljevic S. 4. Barisic H. 15. Stapic K. 10. Cuic M. 20. Ivancic A. 17. Ilic A. 42. Cavar M. 25. Cuze M. 99. Bilbija N. (C)	18. Schram F. (G) 22. Heimisson B. 15. Eyjolfsson H. (C) 4. Nakkim M. 24. Veldman M. 8. Jonsson J. 14. Skoglund A. 28. Fridjonsson S. 12. Haraldsson T. 17. Heimisson L. 9. Pedersen P.
Substitutes
77. Abramovic K. 1. Bogdan M. (G) 44. Djakovic A. (G) 11. Juric T. 5. Lagumdzija D. 12. Mamic P. 37. Morris D. 22. Nalic A. 14. Sakota M. 8. Vidovic I. 19. Vranjkovic M.	25. Agustsson S. (G) 6. Antonsson B. 5. Arnarsson K. 19. Gardarson D. 21. Palsson J. 95. Petersson T. (G) 26. Sigurbjornsson E. 11. Stole I. 29. Veseli S.
Coaches
Rozman S.	Brazell C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Bilbija N. (Penalty Awarded),
44', 1 - 1, Haraldsson T. ⚽, Pedersen P. (A),
45+2', 1 - 2, Haraldsson T. ⚽, Pedersen P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pedersen P. ↓, Gardarson D. ↑,
46', Ilic A. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,
46', Stapic K. ↓, Mamic P. ↑,
59', Cavar M. ↓, Lagumdzija D. ↑,
59', Cuic M. ↓, Juric T. ↑,
65', Abramovic K. 🟨,
74', Cuze M. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
74', Heimisson L. ↓, Antonsson B. ↑,
74', Skoglund A. ↓, Arnarsson K. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Sakota M. ⚽,
83', Heimisson B. ↓, Palsson J. ↑,
89', Bilbija N. (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', Jonsson J. ↓, Stole I. ↑,
90+6', Veldman M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

Zrinjski is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Valur's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Zrinjski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Zrinjski is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Zrinjski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zrinjski Mostar
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Valur - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Posušje	3:1 ✺
16.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Arsenal Tivat	6:0 ✺
11.07.26	Široki Brijeg - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Sarajevo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWW
- Valur Reykjavik
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Valur - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
18.07.26	Valur - Fram	2:3 ✺
12.07.26	FH Hafnarfjordur - Valur	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Valur	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Thor Akureyri - Valur	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Valur - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0

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