Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Hlídarendi (Reykjavík)

Referee: Kourgheli A. (Blr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Valur		Zrinjski Mostar

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.3	2.05	Watch
	2.80	3.30	2.30
	2.98	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.03	3.52	2.23
	3.09	3.53	2.19	Watch
	3	3.45	2.13
	3.45	3.49	2.1	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (1.74)	3.42 ↓ (3.58)	2.17 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valur
30.2%

Draw
27.1%

Zrinjski Mostar
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

25.6%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

26.6%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valur's form might have worsened.

Zrinjski Mostar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zrinjski Mostar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+24.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (-21.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zrinjski Mostar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	10%	50%

Valur - Zrinjski Mostar Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Valur will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). Zrinjski will win (votes: 15 - 53.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zrinjski: 35.1% – 72.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zrinjski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schram F. (G) 22. Heimisson B. 28. Fridjonsson S. 15. Eyjolfsson H. (C) 24. Veldman M. 14. Skoglund A. 17. Heimisson L. 8. Jonsson J. 29. Veseli S. 12. Haraldsson T. 19. Gardarson D.	31. Subaric Z. (G) 19. Vranjkovic M. 37. Morris D. 4. Barisic H. 15. Stapic K. 10. Cuic M. 20. Ivancic A. 17. Ilic A. 22. Nalic A. 25. Cuze M. 99. Bilbija N. (C)
Substitutes
25. Agustsson S. (G) 6. Antonsson B. 5. Arnarsson K. 30. Heiddalur G. 13. Kristjansson K. 4. Nakkim M. 21. Palsson J. 9. Pedersen P. 95. Petersson T. (G) 26. Sigurbjornsson E. 11. Stole I.	77. Abramovic K. 1. Bogdan M. (G) 42. Cavar M. 44. Djakovic A. (G) 21. Grbic V. 27. Jakovljevic S. 11. Juric T. 5. Lagumdzija D. 80. Ljukovac H. 12. Mamic P. 14. Sakota M. 8. Vidovic I.
Coaches
Brazell C.	Rozman S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Veseli S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Nalic A. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Haraldsson T. ⚽, Jonsson J. (A),
65', Heimisson L. ↓, Antonsson B. ↑,
65', Gardarson D. ↓, Palsson J. ↑,
65', Veseli S. ↓, Nakkim M. ↑,
66', Heimisson B. ↓, Pedersen P. ↑,
69', Ilic A. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,
69', Vranjkovic M. ↓, Grbic V. ↑,
79', Palsson J. 🟨,
83', Bilbija N. ↓, Juric T. ↑,
84', Cuze M. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
86', Skoglund A. ↓, Sigurbjornsson E. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Valur has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Zrinjski is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Valur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Zrinjski has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valur Reykjavik
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
18.07.26	Valur - Fram	2:3 ✺
12.07.26	FH Hafnarfjordur - Valur	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Valur	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Thor Akureyri - Valur	2:4 ✺
21.06.26	Valur - Keflavík	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWT
- Zrinjski Mostar
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Posušje	3:1 ✺
16.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Arsenal Tivat	6:0 ✺
11.07.26	Široki Brijeg - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Sarajevo	2:1 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
26.05.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Velež Mostar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWW

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