Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 12

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)

Referee: De Oliveira F. (Bra)


	Água Santa		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.1
	3.5	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.55	3.49	2.1
	3.55	3.49	2.1
	3.3	3.1	2.05
	3.54	3.24	2.05
	3.1	3.25	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↓ (4.35)	3.32 ↑ (3.28)	2.1 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
27.6%

Draw
28.1%

Corinthians
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

28.6%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

28.4%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Água Santa's performance.

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Corinthians might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Água Santa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corinthians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Água Santa - Corinthians Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ygor Vinhas (G) 2. Alex Silva 3. Joilson 4. Robles Fuentes A. 6. Artur 10. Luan Dias 5. Cristiano 8. Igor Henrique 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Junior Todinho 7. Neilton	22. Carlos Miguel (G) 2. Matheuzinho 47. Joao Pedro 4. Caetano 46. Hugo 37. Ryan 34. Raul Gustavo 26. Guilherme Biro 11. Angel Romero 19. Gustavo Mosquito 15. Pedro Henrique
Substitutes
20. Eduardo L. 16. Gabriel Inocencio 22. Jael 15. Kady 18. Keke 24. Leo Sena 12. Matheus Novaes (G) 19. Rafael Oller 17. Rhuan 13. Roger Carvalho 21. Ronald 14. Walber	29. Arthur Sousa 27. Breno Bidon 16. Garro R. 17. Giovane 31. Kayke Ferrari 35. Leo Mana 40. Longo F. (G) 30. Matheus Araujo 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 20. Pedro Raul 3. Torres F. 36. Wesley
Coaches
Bruno Pivetti	Toni Oliveira

Preview

Recent matches Água Santa is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Corinthians is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Água Santa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Corinthians will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Água Santa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Água Santa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Copa do Brasil
07.03.24	Vasco da Gama - Água Santa	4:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	São Bernardo - Água Santa	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Água Santa - Jacuipense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.24	Corinthians - Santo André	3:2 ✺
25.02.24	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.02.24	Cianorte - Corinthians	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
14.02.24	Botafogo SP - Corinthians	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.01.23	Corinthians - Água Santa	3:0
22.02.20	Água Santa - Corinthians	2:1

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