Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV App
Bosnia And Herzegovina	22:30	Arena Sport 4P, Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	17:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	15:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	23:30	Sport 3
Kosovo	22:30	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	14:30	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Russia	23:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	22:30	Arena Premium 2
Spain	22:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
United Arab Emirates	00:30	Dubai Sports 1
United Kingdom	21:30	Premier Sports 1
Usa	16:30	Fanatiz
International	20:30	OneFootball TV


	Palmeiras		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.5	7	Watch
	1.61	3.75	6.00
	1.6	3.45	5.9	Watch
	1.63	3.75	6.82
	1.62	3.85	5.8	Watch
	1.61	3.65	6.75
	1.6	3.54	7.45	Watch
	1.59	3.7	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.48)	3.65 ↓ (4.1)	6.47 ↓ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
59.3%

Draw
26%

Corinthians
14.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.3%

22.8%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

21.5%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.4%	0%	5.6%

Palmeiras - Corinthians Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palmeiras will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 4. Giay A. 8. Andreas Pereira 30. Lucas Evangelista 22. Piquerez J. 42. Lopez J. 11. Arias J. 9. Vitor Roque	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 19. Carrillo A. 49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 9. Yuri Alberto 10. Depay M.
Substitutes
56. Arthur Gabriel 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 17. Marlon Freitas 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 10. Paulinho 19. Sosa R.	29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 77. Lingard J. 55. Machado I. 18. Pedro Raul 11. Vitinho
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	William Batista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', Arias J. 🟨,
14', Raniele 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Barboza A. ⚽, Lucas Evangelista (A),
45+1', 2 - 0, Giay A. ⚽, Arias J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 3 - 0, Matheus Bidu (Own goal),
49', Depay M. 🟨,
49', Giay A. 🟨,
51', 4 - 0, Giay A. ⚽,
57', Breno Bidon ↓, Vitinho ↑,
57', Carrillo A. ↓, Allan ↑,
59', Gabriel Paulista 🟨,
65', Vitinho 🟨,
69', Lopez J. ↓, Mauricio ↑,
69', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
69', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
69', Andre ↓, Andre Ramalho ↑,
69', Yuri Alberto ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
72', Gomez G. 🟨,
77', Sosa R. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
81', Paulinho (Penalty Awarded),
83', Raniele ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
83', Gomez G. ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
90+1', 4 - 1, Gustavo Henrique ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 1.

Palmeiras arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Corinthians is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Corinthians could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Palmeiras for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for Palmeiras in today's match, at odds of 1.6.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras has recorded 7 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:17 (averaging 1.1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Palmeiras against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 15:9 goals (averaging 1.5:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56:22	34	69
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34:42	-8	33

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 39.01%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
07.10.26	Internacional RS - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Corinthians - Fluminense	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	Corinthians - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:1
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:2
30.07.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.03.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0

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