Match Info

Paulista - Round 1

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Corinthians		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.33	8	Watch
	1.38	4.35	8.2
	1.44	4.18	7.56	Watch
	1.36	4	8
	1.4	4.55	8.41
	1.4	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.61)	4.29 ↑ (3.45)	8.11 ↑ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
66.9%

Draw
21.7%

Ponte Preta
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

27.1%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Corinthians's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Corinthians - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Corinthians (1.71) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 5. Andre Ramalho 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 56. Gui Negao 11. Vitinho	12. Diogo Silva (G) 28. Pacheco 4. Saimon 3. Diego M. L. 20. Joao Gabriel 5. Rodrigo Souza 35. Gustavo Lopes 77. Bruno Lopes 10. Elvis (C) 9. Jeh 7. Diego Tavares
Substitutes
48. Amorim G. 54. Bahia 25. Caca 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 46. Hugo 47. Joao Pedro 59. Joao Vitor 31. Kayke 18. Pedro Raul 37. Ryan 3. Torres F.	33. Braga G. 15. Damiao J. 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 18. Gustavo Almeida 38. Gustavo R. 2. Julio 17. Kaio Ganga 27. Leopoldino J. 8. Nikolas 80. Pedrinho 37. Serginho
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', Gustavo Lopes 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Gustavo Henrique ⚽, Vitinho (A),
61', Diego Tavares ↓, Serginho ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Andre ⚽,
73', Carrillo A. ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
75', Bruno Lopes ↓, Emanuel L. ↑,
75', Diego M. L. ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
79', Gui Negao ↓, Kayke ↑,
79', Vitinho ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
84', Gustavo Lopes ↓, Nikolas ↑,
84', Jeh ↓, Damiao J. ↑,
86', Matheuzinho ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
86', Andre ↓, Ryan ↑,
90+2', Pacheco 🟨,
90+2', Charles Rigon 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 0, Andre Ramalho ⚽, Ryan (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 3.

In recent matches, Corinthians has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In this match, Corinthians is the undisputed favorite.

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Dudu Scheit (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:17. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:5. (average 1.7:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa do Brasil
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
17.12.25	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	2:2 penalties ✺
10.12.25	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Corinthians - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WTLWT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
25.10.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Londrina - Ponte Preta	0:0 ✺
11.10.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Brusque - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.25	Ponte Preta - Corinthians	0:1
25.02.24	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	0:1
12.03.22	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	5:0
07.03.21	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	2:1
30.01.20	Ponte Preta - Corinthians	2:1
26.01.19	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	1:0
17.01.18	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	0:1

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