Match Info

CHILE: Primera Division - Round 10

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas (Chillán)

Referee: Sepulveda J. (Chi)


	Ñublense		Cobreloa

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.6
	1.72	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.81	4.88
	1.74	3.81	4.89
	1.67	3.6	4.5
	1.76	3.65	4.51	Watch
	1.71	3.65	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.29)	3.72 ↑ (3.37)	4.67 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ñublense
54.6%

Draw
25.3%

Cobreloa
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27.7%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

27.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ñublense's performance.

Cobreloa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cobreloa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ñublense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cobreloa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Ñublense - Cobreloa Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ñublense will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Cobreloa will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ñublense: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez N. (G) 18. Cerezo B. 2. Labrin C. 5. Caroca R. 14. Campusano G. 20. Graciani G. 28. Rivera M. 6. Reyes L. 27. Moya F. 26. Sosa I. 11. Sanchez P.	22. Avellaneda N. (G) 2. Espejo J. 21. Hernandez R. 4. Tapia B. 5. Gonzalez R. 31. Roco T. 24. Garcia L. 15. Campagnaro M. 32. Mulet A. 7. Insaurralde C. 23. Rodriguez G.
Substitutes
4. Bosso Torres O. 9. Herrera E. 21. Medina C. 22. Plaza M. 10. Rozas I. 30. Tapia D. (G) 19. Valdes A.	3. Aguila Bastias Y. M. 1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 10. Borgnino M. 17. Bravo C. 14. Orrego N. 9. Parra L. 20. Sandoval M.
Coaches
Salas M.	Astorga E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Sanchez P. ⚽, Cerezo B. (A),
22', 2 - 0, Moya F. ⚽,
28', Mulet A. 🟨,
30', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
30', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
34', 3 - 0, Campusano G. ⚽, Cerezo B. (A),
41', Hernandez R. 🟨,
45+1', 4 - 0, Reyes L. (Pen),
45+3', Insaurralde C. 🟨,
45+4', 5 - 0, Graciani G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Roco T. ↓, Bravo C. ↑,
46', Campagnaro M. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
49', 6 - 0, Cerezo B. ⚽, Graciani G. (A),
60', Cerezo B. 🟨,
64', Cerezo B. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
65', Sanchez P. ↓, Herrera E. ↑,
70', Labrin C. 🟨,
71', Rivera M. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
77', Graciani G. ↓, Plaza M. ↑,
77', Reyes L. ↓, Rozas I. ↑,
85', Mulet A. ↓, Borgnino M. ↑,
87', Valdes A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ñublense won 3.

Ñublense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cobreloa is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Ñublense is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Ñublense won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 31-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Ñublense won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 21-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
20.04.24	Cobresal - Ñublense	2:2 ✺
14.04.24	Ñublense - Palestino	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	Ñublense - Colo-Colo	3:0 ✺
31.03.24	Unión Española - Ñublense	5:3 ✺
16.03.24	Everton de Viña - Ñublense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWLL
- Cobreloa
Chilean Primera Division
21.04.24	Cobreloa - Audax Italiano	0:3 ✺
15.04.24	Colo-Colo - Cobreloa	0:2 ✺
07.04.24	Coquimbo Unido - Cobreloa	2:1 ✺
31.03.24	Cobreloa - Universidad de Chile	1:3 ✺
16.03.24	Cobreloa - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
06.12.20	Cobreloa - Ñublense	4:2
05.10.20	Ñublense - Cobreloa	3:2
15.09.19	Cobreloa - Ñublense	1:2
05.05.19	Ñublense - Cobreloa	3:2
14.10.18	Cobreloa - Ñublense	1:0
20.05.18	Ñublense - Cobreloa	5:0
27.08.17	Ñublense - Cobreloa	3:0

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