Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 25 July 2023, Tuesday

Location: LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Referee: Godinho L. (Por)


	Žalgiris		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.33	1.53	Watch
	5.75	4.2	1.55	Watch
	5.75	4.1	1.55
	6	4.25	1.53
	6.06	4.17	1.55
	5.8	3.8	1.44
	6.6	4.35	1.48	Watch
	6.2	4.3	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.99 ↑ (4.73)	4.19 ↑ (3.58)	1.52 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris
15.7%

Draw
22.5%

Galatasaray
61.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

26.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

26.1%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Galatasaray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Galatasaray's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Galatasaray, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.5%	3.7%	89.8%

Žalgiris - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: Galatasaray will win (97 of 108 users predict this - 89.81%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.1% – 95.52%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gertmonas E. (C) 3. Pavelic M. 26. Hnid N. 31. Vucur S. 7. Bopesu J. 15. Buff O. 71. Kendysh Y. 5. Gorobsov N. 10. Golubickas P. 2. Fofana A. 99. Oyewusi M.	1. Muslera F. (C) 93. Boey S. 25. Nelsson V. 42. Bardakci A. 3. Angelino 27. Oliveira S. 22. Kutlu B. 17. Zaniolo N. 11. Akgun Y. 7. Akturkoglu K. 53. Yilmaz B.
Substitutes
80. Antal L. 25. Duka T. (G) 23. Jansonas R. 96. Jarusevicius G. 8. Karashima Y. 9. Kazlauskas D. 4. Kazukolovas K. 12. Mamic P. 13. Mikoliunas S. 33. Milickovic M. 22. Verbickas O. 77. Vilhjalmsson A.	83. Akman E. 23. Ayhan K. 40. Bayram E. 30. Demir Y. 21. Dervisoglu H. 2. Dubois L. 88. Karatas K. 54. Kilinc E. 10. Mertens D. 6. Midtsjo F. 80. Morutan O. 35. Sen B. (G)
Coaches
Cheburin V.	Buruk O.

Preview

1st leg.

Žalgiris in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Galatasaray is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Galatasaray could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Galatasaray is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.07.23	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.07.23	Struga - Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
11.07.23	Žalgiris - Struga	0:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
06.07.23	Žalgiris - Riteriai	3:0 ✺
02.07.23	Banga Gargždai - Žalgiris	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTWW
- Galatasaray
Club Friendly
18.07.23	Sturm Graz - Galatasaray	2:0 ✺
14.07.23	Austria Wien - Galatasaray	1:1 ✺
10.07.23	Galatasaray - Kisvárda	2:0 ✺
05.07.23	Galatasaray - Hull City	3:4 ✺
Turkish Super League
04.06.23	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTWLW

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