Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday


	Adrian Mannarino		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	2.90	1.40
	3.05	1.37	Watch
	3.07	1.4	Watch
	3.05	1.38
	3.13	1.38	Watch
	3	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.18)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
31.1%

Denis Shapovalov
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

70.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

69.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Mannarino (1.74) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Denis Shapovalov will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 78., and Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 50..

In recent outings, Mannarino has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Shapovalov is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Mannarino may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Shapovalov is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Shapovalov in today's match, at odds of 1.38.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Mannarino has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 0.8:1.8 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.34 are the expected chance of winning is 70.35%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Chengdu
25.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Juncheng Shang - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Matisse Bobichon	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Dan Added	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLWL
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Chengdu
25.09.26	Vit Kopriva - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Ben Shelton - Denis Shapovalov	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Denis Shapovalov - Luca Van Assche	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Denis Shapovalov	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
13.08.26	Denis Shapovalov - Adrian Mannarino	2:0
ATP Washington
30.07.24	Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov	0:2
ATP Basel
26.10.17	Denis Shapovalov - Adrian Mannarino	1:2
ATP Montreal
11.08.17	Denis Shapovalov - Adrian Mannarino	2:1

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