Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Denis Shapovalov		Luca Van Assche

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.63	2.22
	1.7	2.34
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.67	2.25
	1.63	2.33	Watch
	1.62	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.61)	2.29 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
58.2%

Luca Van Assche
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Luca Van Assche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Denis Shapovalov - Luca Van Assche Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Van Assche will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Van Assche (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Van Assche (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 48. Van Assche is ranked ATP: 40.

Shapovalov has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Van Assche is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Shapovalov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shapovalov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.56%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Luca Van Assche - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.44%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Denis Shapovalov	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
13.08.26	Denis Shapovalov - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Zachary Svajda - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
ATP Los Cabos
01.08.26	Arthur Gea - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLW?L
- Luca Van Assche
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Luca Van Assche - Cameron Norrie	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Luca Van Assche - Aleksandar Kovacevic	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.08.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Hugo Gaston - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
27.05.24	Luca Van Assche - Denis Shapovalov	0:3

Denis Shapovalov - Luca Van Assche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide