Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Adelaide, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Ugo Humbert

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.01	1.77	Watch
	2.01	1.76	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.02	1.82	Watch
	2.05	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (2)	1.79 ↓ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
47%

Ugo Humbert
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ugo Humbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ugo Humbert could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36%	0%	64%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 9 - 36%). Humbert will win (votes: 16 - 64%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Humbert: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Humbert (votes: 11 - 61.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 15. Humbert is ranked ATP: 36.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 2.

Davidovich Fokina has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Humbert is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Humbert may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Humbert will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Ugo Humbert - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.63%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Rinky Hijikata	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
05.01.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
28.12.25	Jack Draper - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Canceled ✺
28.12.25	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWL?L
- Ugo Humbert
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Terence Atmane	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Cameron Norrie - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
28.12.25	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
28.12.25	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Paris
28.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert	Canceled
ATP Basel
25.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Humbert U. retired
ATP Marseille
09.02.24	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Montpellier
08.02.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert	Humbert U. retired
ATP Estoril
30.04.21	Ugo Humbert - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2

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