Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.95	1.83
	1.94	1.86
	1.9	1.9	Watch
	1.98	1.88
	1.94	1.91	Watch
	1.95	1.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.16)	1.87 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
49.1%

Francis Tiafoe
50.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.2%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	0%	78.6%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 26., and Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 8..

Davidovich Fokina has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Tiafoe has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Tiafoe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Davidovich Fokina has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 0.8:1.8 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 44.17%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jenson Brooksby	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
29.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Alexandre Muller - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
01.10.26	Kei Nishikori - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
11.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ben Shelton	1:3 ✺
08.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
22.03.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Acapulco
26.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Estoril
29.04.22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe	1:2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe