Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villa Maria, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Alex Barrena		Mariano Kestelboim

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.35	2.9
	1.43	2.96
	1.10	6.13	Watch
	1.38	2.9	Watch
	1.42	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.43)	3.42 ↑ (2.58)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
71.8%

Mariano Kestelboim
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Barrena's performance.

Mariano Kestelboim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mariano Kestelboim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mariano Kestelboim than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Barrena will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Kestelboim will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mariano Kestelboim will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 224. Kestelboim is ranked ATP: 436.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Barrena might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barrena won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Alex Barrena - Juan Manuel La Serna	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Alex Barrena - Gonzalo Villanueva	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Filip Cristian Jianu - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	Alex Barrena - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	0:2 ✺
25.08.25	Alex Barrena - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW
- Mariano Kestelboim
ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Lautaro Midon	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Facundo Juarez - Mariano Kestelboim	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.08.25	Nicolas Bruna - Mariano Kestelboim	Kestelboim M. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
05.08.25	Lukas Neumayer - Mariano Kestelboim	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Michael Vrbensky	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.04.25	Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim	2:0
12.01.25	Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim	0:2
ITF Tournaments
11.10.22	Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim	Kestelboim M. retired
07.10.22	Mariano Kestelboim - Alex Barrena	1:2
04.03.20	Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim	0:2

Alex Barrena - Mariano Kestelboim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide