Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jingshan, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Alex Bolt		Dane Sweeny

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.28	1.60	Watch
	2.19	1.59	Watch
	2.20	1.68
	2.18	1.61	Watch
	2.18	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.93)	1.61 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Bolt
42.2%

Dane Sweeny
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Bolt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Bolt's form might have worsened.

Dane Sweeny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dane Sweeny's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Bolt than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Bolt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dane Sweeny, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bolt is ranked ATP: 183., and Sweeny is ranked ATP: 110..

Bolt has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Sweeny have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bolt may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Sweeny is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Bolt has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:0 (averaging 2:0 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Bolt
ATP Challenger
30.09.26	Alex Bolt - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Alex Bolt - Semen Pankin	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
24.09.26	Fabian Marozsan - Alex Bolt	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Alex Bolt - Akira Santillan	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Alex Bolt - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWW
- Dane Sweeny
ATP Challenger
30.09.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Omar Jasika - Dane Sweeny	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
24.09.26	Dane Sweeny - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
05.09.26	Luciano Darderi - Dane Sweeny	3:0 ✺
03.09.26	Dane Sweeny - Lorenzo Musetti	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.11.25	Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny	2:0
01.11.22	Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny	2:0
ITF Tournaments
05.10.22	Dane Sweeny - Alex Bolt	0:2

Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide