Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Alex Bolt		Fajing Sun

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.8	1.9
	1.72	2.01	Watch
	1.83	2.06
	1.72	2.01	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.71	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)	2 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Bolt
53.3%

Fajing Sun
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Bolt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Fajing Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Bolt than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Bolt that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fajing Sun could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Alex Bolt - Fajing Sun Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Bolt will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Sun will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bolt is ranked ATP: 147. Sun is ranked ATP: 213.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sun may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bolt won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Fajing Sun - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Bolt
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Alex Bolt - Adam Walton	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Keegan Smith - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
30.04.26	Giles Hussey - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Aoran Wang - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Alex Bolt - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWWL
- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Fajing Sun	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Mark Lajal - Fajing Sun	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Ognjen Milic - Fajing Sun	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Fajing Sun - Tristan Schoolkate	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Fajing Sun - Li Tu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
11.05.25	Fajing Sun - Alex Bolt	2:0
ATP Shanghai
02.10.23	Fajing Sun - Alex Bolt	2:0

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