Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Alex De Minaur		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	1.80	2.00	Watch
	1.75	2.05	Watch
	1.74	2.08	Watch
	1.82	2.04	Watch
	1.84	1.97
	1.94	1.89	Watch
	1.75	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.73)	2 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
52.6%

Andrey Rublev
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Rublev (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Rublev (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 2 - 50%). Rublev (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 10., and Rublev is ranked ATP: 24..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 1.

Both players are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Rublev may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, De Minaur has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:15 (averaging 1.7:1.7 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Beijing
02.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Quentin Halys	2:1 ✺
30.09.26	Alex De Minaur - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
26.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
20.09.26	Alex De Minaur - Kamil Majchrzak	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WW?WW
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Beijing
03.10.26	Andrey Rublev - Roman Safiullin	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
29.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Hugo Gaston - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
06.12.25	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	1:3
ATP Doha
20.02.25	Andrey Rublev - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP Rotterdam
16.02.24	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	2:1
ATP Australian Open
21.01.24	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	2:3
ATP Paris
03.11.23	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	1:2
ATP Rotterdam
15.02.23	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.22	Andrey Rublev - Alex De Minaur	2:1

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