Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hangzhou, hard - Final

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Daniil Medvedev		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.75
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.65	Watch
	1.44	2.8
	1.52	2.69	Watch
	1.46	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.45)	2.67 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
64.4%

Andrey Rublev
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Rublev (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Rublev (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 6., and Rublev is ranked ATP: 24..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 3.

Medvedev is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Rublev has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rublev could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Medvedev holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Medvedev has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:4 (averaging 2.1:0.4 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.48%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Hangzhou
28.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Roman Safiullin	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Hangzhou
28.09.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Hugo Gaston - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Rinky Hijikata - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Marin Cilic - Andrey Rublev	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.23	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP US Open
06.09.23	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	3:0
ATP Dubai
04.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP World Tour Finals
14.11.22	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	1:2
ATP Cincinnati
21.08.21	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	1:2
ATP Australian Open
16.02.21	Andrey Rublev - Daniil Medvedev	0:3
ATP US Open
09.09.20	Andrey Rublev - Daniil Medvedev	0:3

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