Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Prima Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alex Michelsen		Karen Khachanov

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.48	Watch
	2.9	1.39	Watch
	2.8	1.5
	2.87	1.42	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.93	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.67)	1.43 ↓ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
33.3%

Karen Khachanov
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Karen Khachanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Alex Michelsen - Karen Khachanov Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Michelsen will win (votes: 14 - 40%). Khachanov will win (votes: 21 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Khachanov: 43.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Khachanov (votes: 8 - 61.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Khachanov (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Michelsen (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3 Games - Michelsen (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Khachanov (votes: 9 - 56.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 34. Khachanov is ranked ATP: 16.

In recent matches, Michelsen has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Khachanov is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Michelsen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Khachanov might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Khachanov will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Michelsen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Toronto
02.08.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
31.07.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
29.07.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
22.07.25	Alex Michelsen - Daniel Evans	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Alex Michelsen - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL
- Karen Khachanov
ATP Toronto
02.08.25	Karen Khachanov - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
31.07.25	Karen Khachanov - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Karen Khachanov - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
08.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Karen Khachanov	3:1 ✺
06.07.25	Karen Khachanov - Kamil Majchrzak	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
17.01.25	Alex Michelsen - Karen Khachanov	3:0

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