Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday


	Alex Michelsen		Learner Tien

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
			Watch
	1.97	1.81	Watch
	2.05	1.88
	2	1.81	Watch
	2	1.8
	1.89	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.87)	1.84 ↓ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
48.1%

Learner Tien
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Learner Tien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Michelsen will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Tien will win (votes: 16 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tien: 47.8% – 85.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tien (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 41. Tien is ranked ATP: 20.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Michelsen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Michelsen won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 79% of matches with these odds.

Learner Tien - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Geneva
20.05.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
18.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Sebastian Ofner - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Pol Martin Tiffon	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLL
- Learner Tien
ATP Geneva
20.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Learner Tien - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Learner Tien - Daniel Vallejo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0
ATP Toronto
02.08.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0
ATP Houston
31.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0
ATP Next Gen Finals
21.12.24	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:3

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