Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday


	Alexander Bublik		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	3.5	1.3	Watch
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.7	1.28	Watch
	4.01	1.27
	3.28	1.33	Watch
	3.5	1.3	Watch
	3.36	1.34	Watch
	3.7	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.99)	1.3 ↓ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
26.8%

Andrey Rublev
73.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	0%	56.2%

Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Rublev will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 2 - 40%). Rublev (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Bublik (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Bublik (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Rublev (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 75. Rublev is ranked ATP: 8.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bublik won 3.

Bublik is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Rublev is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rublev could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rublev is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Bublik won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:12 (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Madrid
25.04.25	Alexei Popyrin - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Zizou Bergs - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Alexander Ritschard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLWW
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Madrid
25.04.25	Gael Monfils - Andrey Rublev	Rublev A. walkover ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Jesper De Jong - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
09.04.25	Andrey Rublev - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?LWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Doha
18.02.25	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Bublik	2:0
ATP Dubai
01.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev	Bublik A. awarded
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.23	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Bublik	3:2
ATP Halle
25.06.23	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP Hamburg
20.07.22	Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev	Canceled
ATP Rotterdam
13.02.20	Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev	0:2
ATP Vienna
23.10.19	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Bublik	2:1

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