Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	Alexander Donski		Max Houkes

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.96	1.44
	2.61	1.43	Watch
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.66	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.19)	1.45 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Donski
35.1%

Max Houkes
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Donski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Donski's form might have worsened.

Max Houkes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Max Houkes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Alexander Donski - Max Houkes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3 Games - Donski (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Donski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Donski is ranked ATP: 779. Houkes is ranked ATP: 245.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Houkes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Houkes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Donski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Alexander Donski - Garrett Johns	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Alexander Donski - Nicholas David Ionel	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Samuele Pieri - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	David Jorda Sanchis - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Denis Yevseyev - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWLL
- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Max Houkes - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Max Houkes - Ryan Nijboer	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Max Houkes - Pierre Antoine Faut	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.01.26	Max Houkes - Karan Singh	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
28.06.22	Alexander Donski - Max Houkes	0:2

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