Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday


	Max Houkes		Luka Pavlovic

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.56	1.45	Watch
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.37)	1.44 ↓ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Houkes
35.7%

Luka Pavlovic
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Houkes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Luka Pavlovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Max Houkes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luka Pavlovic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Max Houkes - Luka Pavlovic Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Houkes will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Pavlovic will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Houkes is ranked ATP: 245. Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 211.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Houkes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pavlovic is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Max Houkes - Ryan Nijboer	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Max Houkes - Pierre Antoine Faut	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.01.26	Max Houkes - Karan Singh	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Max Houkes - Timofei Derepasko	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW
- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
05.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Eliakim Coulibaly	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Pol Martin Tiffon	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
09.02.26	Luka Pavlovic - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWLW

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