Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Alexander Shevchenko		Roberto Bautista-Agut

	1	2
			Watch
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.65	2.32
	1.6	2.27	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)	2.2 ↑ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Shevchenko
57.2%

Roberto Bautista-Agut
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Shevchenko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Shevchenko's performance.

Roberto Bautista-Agut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roberto Bautista-Agut might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Shevchenko than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Shevchenko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Bautista-Agut than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roberto Bautista-Agut could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Alexander Shevchenko - Roberto Bautista Agut Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Roberto Bautista-Agut will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roberto Bautista-Agut will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 76. Bautista-Agut is ranked ATP: 80.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Bautista-Agut may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.63%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Roberto Bautista-Agut - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.37%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Andrea Pellegrino	Pellegrino A. Retired ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Radu David Turcanu	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Ben Shelton - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 ?LWLW
- Roberto Bautista-Agut
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Karen Khachanov	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	James Duckworth - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Valentin Royer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWL

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