Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday


	Alexis Galarneau		Miguel Tobon

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.32	3.1	Watch
	1.37	3.25
	1.3	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.33	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.34)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexis Galarneau
70.5%

Miguel Tobon
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexis Galarneau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Miguel Tobon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexis Galarneau than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Alexis Galarneau - Miguel Tobon Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Galarneau will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Tobon will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Galarneau is ranked ATP: 209. Tobon is ranked ATP: 563.

Recent performances by Galarneau have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tobon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tobon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Galarneau is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexis Galarneau
ATP Challenger
18.03.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Gael Monfils - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Alexis Galarneau - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Borna Gojo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWWL
- Miguel Tobon
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Patrick Zahraj - Miguel Tobon	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Miguel Tobon - Jake Delaney	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Tyler Zink - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Miguel Tobon - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Quinn Vandecasteele - Miguel Tobon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWLWW

Alexis Galarneau - Miguel Tobon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide