Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Busan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Alibek Kachmazov		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	2	1.72	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	2.02	1.82
	2	1.77
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.99	1.75	Watch
	1.91	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.68)	1.77 ↓ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alibek Kachmazov
47.4%

Ilia Simakin
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alibek Kachmazov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alibek Kachmazov's form might have worsened.

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilia Simakin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alibek Kachmazov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Alibek Kachmazov - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Kachmazov will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Simakin will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Simakin: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 183. Simakin is ranked ATP: 295.

Recent matches Kachmazov is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Simakin is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Kachmazov could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Kachmazov won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Cyril Vandermeersch - Alibek Kachmazov	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Borna Coric - Alibek Kachmazov	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Liam Draxl - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
05.03.25	Benjamin Hassan - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
04.03.25	Gauthier Onclin - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWWW
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
13.04.25	Ilia Simakin - Duck Hee Lee	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Ilia Simakin - Yi Zhou	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.03.25	Ilia Simakin - Stefanos Sakellaridis	1:2 ✺
21.03.25	Ilia Simakin - Matt Kuhar	2:0 ✺
20.03.25	Ilia Simakin - Billy Suarez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
14.04.23	Ilia Simakin - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2
10.03.20	Alibek Kachmazov - Ilia Simakin	2:0

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