Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Paris, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday


	Alina Charaeva		Aliaksandra Sasnovich

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.07	1.67	Watch
	2.37	1.68
	2.11	1.68	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.06	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.43)	1.68 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alina Charaeva
44%

Aliaksandra Sasnovich
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alina Charaeva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alina Charaeva's performance.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aliaksandra Sasnovich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alina Charaeva than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alina Charaeva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aliaksandra Sasnovich than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aliaksandra Sasnovich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Alina Charaeva - Aliaksandra Sasnovich Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Charaeva will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Sasnovich will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sasnovich: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Charaeva is ranked WTA: 125. Sasnovich is ranked WTA: 120.

Charaeva is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sasnovich's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Charaeva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sasnovich could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Charaeva won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alina Charaeva - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.2%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alina Charaeva
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Alina Charaeva - Tamara Korpatsch	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Sara Bejlek - Alina Charaeva	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Alina Charaeva - Alice Tubello	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Alina Charaeva - Darya Kasatkina	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Xin Yu Wang - Alina Charaeva	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWWLW
- Aliaksandra Sasnovich
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Anna Blinkova	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Talia Gibson - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	0:2 ✺
WTA Roma
04.05.26	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Julia Grabher	1:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
20.04.26	Alina Charaeva - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
14.04.26	Karolina Muchova - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Madrid
20.04.26	Alina Charaeva - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2:0

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