Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday


	Andrea Guerrieri		Jesper De Jong

	1	2
	3.00	1.36	Watch
	2.75	1.40
	2.80	1.41	Watch
	2.81	1.38	Watch
	2.85	1.43
	2.77	1.39	Watch
	2.80	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.44)	1.39 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Guerrieri
33%

Jesper De Jong
67%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

62.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Guerrieri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Jesper De Jong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Guerrieri than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Andrea Guerrieri - Jesper De Jong Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Guerrieri is ranked ATP: 169., and De Jong is ranked ATP: 95..

Guerrieri has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

De Jong has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

De Jong is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Jesper De Jong - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 62.09%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Guerrieri
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
27.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLWWW
- Jesper De Jong
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Remy Bertola - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
03.09.26	Zizou Bergs - Jesper De Jong	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Jesper De Jong - Francesco Passaro	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
24.08.26	Adam Walton - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Jesper De Jong - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLL

Andrea Guerrieri - Jesper De Jong: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide