Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday


	Andrea Guerrieri		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	1.62	2.20	Watch
	1.62	2.15
	1.64	2.20	Watch
	1.67	2.06	Watch
	1.61	2.35
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.65)	2.2 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Guerrieri
57.6%

Francesco Maestrelli
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Guerrieri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Guerrieri than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrea Guerrieri that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francesco Maestrelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Andrea Guerrieri - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Guerrieri is ranked ATP: 167., and Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 169..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Guerrieri could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Guerrieri - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.73%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.27%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Guerrieri
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
27.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.08.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
18.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
17.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Yanis Ghazouani Durand	2:1 ✺
16.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Alafia Ayeni	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLW

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