Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Bastad 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Andrey Rublev		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	1.33	3.40	Watch
	1.35	3.10	Watch
	1.35	3.20	Watch
	1.36	3.49
	1.35	3.08	Watch
	1.34	3.35	Watch
	1.34	3.28	Watch
	1.32	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.15)	3.26 ↓ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
70.8%

Andrea Pellegrino
29.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

79.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Andrey Rublev's form might have worsened.

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Andrea Pellegrino's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Andrey Rublev - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Pellegrino will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 59% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Pellegrino (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 50%). Pellegrino (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 16. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 138.

Rublev has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pellegrino's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rublev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rublev is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Roman Safiullin	2:3 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
24.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Thanasi Kokkinakis	1:2 ✺
23.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Shevchenko	2:1 ✺
ATP Halle
16.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Jakub Mensik - Andrey Rublev	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Bastad
14.07.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Raul Brancaccio	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
24.06.26	Tristan Boyer - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Jay Clarke - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Andrey Rublev - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	✺

Andrey Rublev - Andrea Pellegrino