Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday


	Andrey Rublev		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.36	3.04	Watch
	1.42	3.09
	1.35	3.15	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.38	3.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.31)	3.11 ↓ (3.53)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
69.4%

Lorenzo Sonego
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Sonego will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 18.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Sonego (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Sonego will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 20%). Sonego (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 11. Sonego is ranked ATP: 38.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Sonego may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rublev is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 72.93%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
23.07.25	Learner Tien - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
ATP Los Cabos
19.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Aleksandar Kovacevic	1:2 ✺
17.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLWW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
23.07.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.25	Ben Shelton - Lorenzo Sonego	3:1 ✺
05.07.25	Brandon Nakashima - Lorenzo Sonego	2:3 ✺
03.07.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Metz
05.11.24	Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.23	Lorenzo Sonego - Andrey Rublev	3:2
ATP Roma
15.05.21	Lorenzo Sonego - Andrey Rublev	2:1
ATP Vienna
01.11.20	Lorenzo Sonego - Andrey Rublev	0:2
ATP Challenger
04.08.16	Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0

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