Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Washington, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75	Watch
	2.06	1.74	Watch
	2.08	1.84
	2.05	1.74	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.06	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.9)	1.77 ↓ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
46.2%

Lorenzo Sonego
53.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 44. Sonego is ranked ATP: 37.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Arnaldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Washington
21.07.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
23.06.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Reilly Opelka	Canceled ✺
ATP London
16.06.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
ATP Stuttgart
09.06.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WL??L
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.25	Ben Shelton - Lorenzo Sonego	3:1 ✺
05.07.25	Brandon Nakashima - Lorenzo Sonego	2:3 ✺
03.07.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	3:1 ✺
01.07.25	Jaime Faria - Lorenzo Sonego	0:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
25.06.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWWL

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