Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Max, Max
Bulgaria	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Finland	Max
Hungary	Max
Netherlands	Max
Norway	MAX
Romania	Max
Sweden	Max


	Brandon Nakashima		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	1.5	2.63
	1.55	2.4
	1.48	2.56	Watch
	1.52	2.71
			Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.55	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.57)	2.58 ↓ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
62.9%

Lorenzo Sonego
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Brandon Nakashima - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 6 - 30%). Sonego will win (votes: 14 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sonego: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Sonego (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Sonego (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Sonego (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 34. Sonego is ranked ATP: 47.

Nakashima is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sonego has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sonego may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nakashima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nakashima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Brandon Nakashima - Reilly Opelka	3:1 ✺
02.07.25	Brandon Nakashima - Bu Yunchaokete	3:1 ✺
ATP London
20.06.25	Brandon Nakashima - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
18.06.25	Daniel Evans - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
17.06.25	Brandon Nakashima - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	3:1 ✺
01.07.25	Jaime Faria - Lorenzo Sonego	0:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
25.06.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
23.06.25	Fabian Marozsan - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Halle
19.06.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hong Kong
30.12.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Brandon Nakashima	2:0

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