Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday


	Andrey Rublev		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.40
	1.58	2.38	Watch
	1.63	2.50
	1.54	2.54	Watch
	1.61	2.40
	1.58	2.39	Watch
	1.55	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.58)	2.42 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
60.5%

Sebastian Baez
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Andrey Rublev - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Baez will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Baez (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 23 Games - over (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 10.5 Games, 2nd Set - over (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (3.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 16. Baez is ranked ATP: 56.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Rublev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rublev will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rublev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.93%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Sebastian Baez - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.07%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Bastad
16.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Roman Safiullin	2:3 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
24.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Thanasi Kokkinakis	1:2 ✺
23.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Alexander Shevchenko	2:1 ✺
ATP Halle
16.06.26	Andrey Rublev - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Bastad
16.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Max Dahlin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	3:2 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bastad
16.07.22	Sebastian Baez - Andrey Rublev	2:0

Andrey Rublev - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide