Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Final

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Australia	9Gem
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	Eurosport 1
Finland	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1
Italy	Super Tennis
Peru	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Poland	Eurosport 1
Sweden	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Turkey	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Aryna Sabalenka		Elena Rybakina

	1	2
	1.62	2.38	Watch
	1.60	2.40
	1.64	2.32
	1.65	2.43
	1.62	2.29	Watch
	1.63	2.35
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.65	2.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.67)	2.32 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka
58.7%

Elena Rybakina
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Elena Rybakina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.6%	0%	34.4%

Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%). Rybakina will win (votes: 11 - 35.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 47.7% – 81.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Sabalenka (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Rybakina (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Games O/U 23.5 - over (1.95) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aryna Sabalenka will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 4 - 80%). Rybakina (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Rybakina is ranked WTA: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 3.

In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.

Sabalenka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA US Open
10.09.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Linda Noskova	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Taylor Townsend	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Kamilla Rakhimova	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Polina Iatcenko	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWWW
- Elena Rybakina
WTA US Open
10.09.26	Cori Gauff - Elena Rybakina	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Qinwen Zheng - Elena Rybakina	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Naomi Osaka - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Yulia Starodubtseva - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
03.09.26	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
26.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:0
WTA Indian Wells
15.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:1
WTA Australian Open
31.01.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	1:2
WTA Finals
08.11.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Wuhan
10.10.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:0
WTA Cincinnati
15.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Berlin
20.06.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:1

Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide