Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	August Holmgren		Kaichi Uchida

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.44	2.6
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.46	2.53	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.44	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.57)	2.59 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
64.2%

Kaichi Uchida
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in August Holmgren's performance.

Kaichi Uchida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaichi Uchida might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaichi Uchida than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

August Holmgren - Kaichi Uchida Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Holmgren will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Holmgren (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 199. Uchida is ranked ATP: 242.

Holmgren has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Uchida has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Holmgren may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Holmgren might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

August Holmgren - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Kaichi Uchida - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
16.02.26	August Holmgren - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Matej Dodig - August Holmgren	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Dino Prizmic - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.01.26	Alexis Galarneau - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	August Holmgren - Adria Soriano Barrera	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 L?LLW
- Kaichi Uchida
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Raul Brancaccio - Kaichi Uchida	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Giorgio Tabacco - Kaichi Uchida	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Vladislav Melnic - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Kaichi Uchida - Adria Soriano Barrera	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Kaichi Uchida - Maxwell McKennon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWLW

August Holmgren - Kaichi Uchida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide