Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Astana, hard - Final

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday


	Aziz Dougaz		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
			Watch
	2.20	1.60
	2.45	1.53
	2.47	1.63
	2.26	1.61	Watch
	2.35	1.60
	2.18	1.61	Watch
	2.25	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.14)	1.59 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aziz Dougaz
40.8%

Hayato Matsuoka
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aziz Dougaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aziz Dougaz than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aziz Dougaz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hayato Matsuoka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Dougaz is ranked ATP: 629. Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 314.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Matsuoka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Matsuoka might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Matsuoka will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 56.79%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aziz Dougaz
ATP Challenger
15.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Sergey Fomin	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Jie Cui - Aziz Dougaz	1:2 ✺
13.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Manas Manoj Dhamne	2:0 ✺
11.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Alec Deckers	2:1 ✺
06.08.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Aziz Dougaz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWWL
- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
15.08.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Khumoun Sultanov	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Fajing Sun - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
12.08.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
10.08.26	Koki Matsuda - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
30.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Jeffrey John Wolf	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWL

Aziz Dougaz - Hayato Matsuoka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide