Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Ningbo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ningbo 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Fajing Sun		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
	1.91	1.80
	1.98	1.74
	1.94	1.77	Watch
	2.01	1.79
	1.95	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.19)	1.77 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fajing Sun
47.5%

Hayato Matsuoka
52.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.2%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fajing Sun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fajing Sun's performance.

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hayato Matsuoka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Fajing Sun - Hayato Matsuoka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sun is ranked ATP: 292., and Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 242..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Matsuoka could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Matsuoka holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Sun has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.8%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
22.10.26	Keegan Smith - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
20.10.26	Fajing Sun - Qian Sun	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Fajing Sun - Jie Cui	0:2 ✺
09.10.26	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Fajing Sun - Kasidit Samrej	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLW
- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
20.10.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Yibing Wu	0:2 ✺
13.10.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Aleksandar Vukic	0:2 ✺
12.10.26	Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Qian Sun	2:1 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.26	Taro Daniel - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.08.26	Fajing Sun - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2
06.01.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Fajing Sun	1:2
ITF Tournaments
30.10.25	Fajing Sun - Hayato Matsuoka	2:1

Fajing Sun - Hayato Matsuoka